The airline case
Durban has had no direct long-haul service since 2020. For two of our three target markets, London Heathrow is the natural way in.
Why Heathrow becomes the hub, not just the origin
A three-market decision, not a UK-only one
Durban has had no direct long-haul service since October 2020. Every corridor patient — British, American or German — has to connect somewhere. For two of our three target markets, that connection point is London.
5,020
Return LHR–DUR trips by Year 5 across all three markets — up 43% on 3,500 on UK demand alone.
1,040
Of those, also flying a transatlantic leg — an American patient carried on both sectors, in a single pre-paid booking.
Year-round
Counter-seasonal by construction — a UK winter is a Durban summer, exactly the demand a hotel and an airline are least able to buy for themselves.
Route access to Durban
By target market
| Market | Direct service to Durban | Natural connecting hub | Corridor phase |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | None since October 2020 | Direct, if LHR–DUR is restored | Launch — modelled |
| United States | None, and none has ever existed | London Heathrow | Accelerated case |
| Germany | None | London Heathrow | Accelerated case |
| Australia | None | Middle East or Johannesburg — not London | Phase 2 — not modelled |
For the United States and Germany, a restored LHR–DUR service would not simply carry British patients — it becomes the transit hub through which American and German corridor patients reach Durban too, on two of the densest air corridors in the world.
For a carrier with a transatlantic joint business, an American patient is carried on both legs — the transatlantic sector into Heathrow and the long-haul sector out of it — as a pair, in both directions, on a single pre-paid corridor booking with a known return date.
Australia is the deliberate exception. Those patients would connect via the Middle East or Johannesburg, not London — we would rather state that plainly than present four markets as one story.
Status. Nothing on this page implies an agreement, a route commitment or an endorsement by any airline. British Airways and other carriers on this route are target partners for a commercial conversation.
Year 5, side by side
What the accelerated case adds to the base case
| Base — UK only | Accelerated — three markets | |
|---|---|---|
| Patient journeys | 2,250 | 3,010 |
| Total revenue | £42.93M | £64.21M |
| Operating profit | £10.32M | £15.21M |
| LHR–DUR return trips | 3,500 | 5,020 |
| Of which transatlantic-connecting | — | 1,040 |
All prices, savings, volumes and projections are illustrative planning estimates to support partnership discussions — not quotes, forecasts, or clinical or financial advice. Final figures require firm partner quotes and professional advice.
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